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LebMan
9 Posts |
 Posted - 06/15/2005 : 08:42:17 AM
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In here I will try to analyse why the elections outcome was a complete victory to FPM and a complete loss to LF :
1- LF appeared for the people that they are looking for few seats here and there and they did not give the impression that the christian partner is allying to the muslim partner. While GMA stood firm and told Jomblat "either we are equal or let it be a battle", this have risen emotions and pride inside the christian population that is seeking a leader it can count on to deal with the muslim partner and won't sacrifice its national interests, which a fair representation of the christians is one of them.
2- they did not explain to their base why are they doing these alliances and what are the guarantees that what they are doing will free Geagea. Many was unconvinced. While GMA was telling that he has a program and each one of the allies should agree on it before allying with him. It does not matter if what he said is true or the program he published is really useful, however the impression he gave was he is going to offer something for the people after the election and not just one day alliance.
3- Maybe the most important psychological phenomenon is that they did not lead any list! They were just 1 member in a list lead by someone else, no one took Neim seriously. On the opposite side, GMA was most of the times the leader or the co-leader. Leader in Keserwan, Metn, even the mighty Michel El Murr was the last member of GMA list in Metn, he was a co-leader in Baabda-Aley.
His leadership in many lists gave a very good psychological effect to the people.
4- They appeared weak and inconsistent with themselves. they gave the impression that they begged for the seats and Hariri and Jomblat gave them 1 more seat in each list as a pitty. So no more the slogan "A3ido 7isabatikom na7nou houna" means anything to anyone. They entered alliances that were created on the prompt and not through enough studied political negociations. They were alliances just to beat Aoun !
On the other hand GMA played it very wisely he conducted a negociations with Jomblat but did not close the door to others. He convinced the people that Jomblat & the others are trying to beseige him on purpose to beat him! And despite many objections from FPMers on the alliance with Murr, he convinced all of them that this is necessary to avoid being eliminated from the lebanese political scene.
5- Their electoral campaign was a total fiasco compared to FPM ones. Many times FPM was able to organize 2 or 3 "mahrajen" in different places on the same day. While theirs "keno shi te3tir" especially the one of sagesse! There were barely 1500 to 2000 most of them came from the keserwan area while it was supposed to support the Metn list.
6- Kicking out, Jean Aziz and Toufic El Hindi in a crucial period had a negative effect on many of the followers!
7- Finally, probably not that crucial, however important.
You saw for sure Adbo Saed many times on LBC and other channels speaking about scientific statistics and predicting the victory of GMA in many districts. No electoral experts were assessing the situation of LF & allies and this gave an impression that FPM knows what is doing and acting counsciously and based on scientific approach which gave assurance to his supporters.
In short GMA played it very well, and LF played it very bad with no political maturity.
What should they do to recover ?
In my opinion this is not complicated, they should convince their base that what they are doing is for their interest and not to gain few seats, and they should give back the meaning to the slogan "A3ido 7isabatikom na7nou houna". they should not appear weak anymore.
It is simple, suppose you appear weak in front of your girlfriend, she won't respect you anymore...Same in politics.
To acheive this, either Geagea should be freed or a strong deputee should be appointed until the jailed leader is freed, but for sure NO MORE Strida (with all my respect to her). |
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Truth Squad
114 Posts |
Posted - 06/15/2005 : 1:05:42 PM
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Good analysis Lebman.
I agree with many of the reasons you listed.
However I would like to make a few points:
1- Your analysis presumes that the LF have a large popular base in northern Mount Lebanon. Well the elections have just proved that they are a minority.
2- If I agree with you that they are not a minority, the results did not show it. Yes many will argue that the election law of 2000 did not allow fair representation. True, and this is what happened to the Reform and Change candidates in Baabda-Aley. Had there been a fair electoral law, perhaps none of the LF candidates there would have won either. Nevertheless, a majority of voters spoke in these elections in Jbeil-Keserwan, Metn and Zahle and they chose the FPM, not the other camp.
3- The LF represented by Setrida Geagea or Solange Gemayel have projected an image of a family affair not a democratic movement. Yes many if not most Christians in Jbeil-Keserwan and Metn rallied behind Bachir Gemayel, but that was long-time ago in 1982. They would have still rallied today behind him for what he represented, not for the sake of his last name or his family. The same can be said about Samir Geagea; many sympathize with him because they believe he is unfairly imprisoned, and perhaps would have voted for him for what he represents. Unfortunately, the LF candidates have decided that he represents the will to build a new political family and not a national program. The voter preferred the program.
4- The LF and the Kornet and the Kataeb and their allies, presumed to themselves the right to represent the people with and without elections. Their behavior appeared to be intended to marginalize the popular will and retain power in the hands of the establishment of a privileged few. They presumed to know what's best for the people without even asking the people what they wanted. The people shun the elites and the privileged and in a true democracy, the people win, not the elites. Let it be a lesson for the future.
5- I agree that Setrida was not the best they had. She seemed to be placed there to preserve Geagea's stronghold over the LF until he gets out. In addition, she did not seem able to articulate the LF's strategy independent of Hariri or Jumblat.
6- Simple mathematiccs: the FPM is more popular. |
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Samir
Lebanon
33 Posts |
Posted - 06/15/2005 : 2:08:11 PM
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| I think that the Christians in these areas sent a loud and clear message: No to anyone who deals with the other side. Just because quornet chahwan and the lebanese forces for once came together with the sunnis and the shi3a and the druze in a national coalition, they were punished and voted out and a the 3imad of war was elected in. I see no hope for this country. i agree with jumblat, we are going to a new civil war. |
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Lebanese Abroad
11 Posts |
Posted - 06/15/2005 : 2:18:00 PM
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It is not a matter of why someone won and someone lost. It is a victory for democracy guys. For once the people voted in large numbers and we cannot but respect their wishes. Votes were cast for both parties: the Hariri bloc and the Aoun bloc, in Jbeil/Keserwan and Metn and Zahleh, the Aoun bloc carried; and in Baabda/Aley and the rest of Lebanon, the Hariri bloc did. So we have two major coalitions in Lebanon instead of a single ruling party and that is healthy.
I disagree with Samir about this message thing. If anything, it was a clear message for reform and secular government not more sectarian divisions and alignment. |
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Truth Squad
114 Posts |
Posted - 06/15/2005 : 4:25:27 PM
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It is a victory for democracy indeed, from Jbeil to Baabda Aley. I wish the rest of the elections in Lebanon were like that.
It is a rather simplistic analysis to say that Christians have voted for extremism and against national unity. On the contrary, they voted for the ticket that proposed secular reforms, the ticket that faught Christian extremism and Syrian occupation in the late 80s and the ticket that does not segregate LEbanese into sectarian groups. |
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LebMan
9 Posts |
Posted - 06/16/2005 : 09:03:58 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Samir
I think that the Christians in these areas sent a loud and clear message: No to anyone who deals with the other side. Just because quornet chahwan and the lebanese forces for once came together with the sunnis and the shi3a and the druze in a national coalition, they were punished and voted out and a the 3imad of war was elected in. I see no hope for this country. i agree with jumblat, we are going to a new civil war.
Not at all. People in Metn & Kesrwan voted for a leader not for a position seekers ! All the people still accusing Kornet Chehwan of conspiracy to keep the 2000 election law. It considers Kornet Chehwan guys puppets in the hand of Jomblat and Hariri. For sure ther are not going to vote to puppets but to strong leader who can sit on a round table with Jomblat & Hariri and negociate with them at an equal level.
Nicolas Nassif, a journalist at annahar, once said there was a big symbolism of the weakness of Kornet Chehwan concretized by Fares Souaid walking one or two steps behind Jomblat in Bruxelles and not next to him. |
Edited by - LebMan on 06/16/2005 09:04:37 AM |
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LebMan
9 Posts |
Posted - 06/16/2005 : 09:06:34 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Truth Squad
Good analysis Lebman.
I agree with many of the reasons you listed.
However I would like to make a few points:
1- Your analysis presumes that the LF have a large popular base in northern Mount Lebanon. Well the elections have just proved that they are a minority.
May be I was mostly talking about the neutral and the undecided population. |
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Why did FPM win & Why did LF loose ?
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